criminal investigation into the flights, and is now certified the migrants who were trapped in their boarding planes to the vineyard are the victims of a crime. the migrants have been expected to pursue asylum claims, but thanks to governor desantis, they are eligible to apply for special you visas, reserved for victims and witnesses of crimes. the visa would also prevent them from being deported until their cases are settled, and put them on a path to citizenship. in addition to the dissent is stunned, potentially helping the migrants, it is now also the subject of a treasury department probe looking into whether desantis may have misused covid-19 relief aid to fund the flights. you know what they say about karma. that does it for us tonight, rachel will be back on monday, and i will see you want tuesday. now, with just 25 days until the election, it is time for something special, the kornacki countdown, with steve kornacki. countdown, with steve kornacki

♪ ♪ ♪ >> and we are 24 days, 19 hours, 59 minutes, 38 seconds and counting until the first polls close on election night. thank you so much for joining us for this election count down, here is what's going to be happening every friday night from now until election day, we are going to be right here, at this hour, at this board, bringing you the latest in polling, the latest data, the latest on the ground reporting and expert analysis as we draw near one of the most anticipated midterm elections in modern memory. that's going to be november the 8th. already, voting started in more than a dozen states. that includes some of the most critical battlegrounds on the board, pennsylvania, florida, wisconsin, just over the last couple of days, ohio, arizona, and a georgia early voting set

to begin this coming monday. it is the peach state where we start tonight with our breaking news. a head to head televised showdown this evening between democratic senator raphael warnock, and his republican challenger, herschel walker. all year, the georgia senate race has been one of the most closely watched in the country, but that has been even more true that ever over the last ten days. it began with that reporting first from the daily beast by the new york times, that walker had pushed for and paid for his then girlfriend to have an abortion in 2009, a charge that walker has denied. since that reporting, this has become the question when it comes to the battle for control of the senate. will it cost walker the voters? if it does, will it cost republicans a seat they may need to win if they're going to gain control of the senate? we knew that topic was going to come up tonight, it did, here's how it played out. >> your former girlfriend made

public accusations, saying you paid for an abortion, and that even courage her to have another. in abc news interview this week, you said that the accusations are, quote, all allies. for the voters watching tonight, can you explain the circumstances surrounding these claims? you have 60 seconds. >> as i said, that's a lie. you know, most thing, i put it in the book, one thing about my life, i've been very transparent. >> that was only a small part of what proved to be a contentious hour-long debate. abortion, inflation, health care, donald trump's claims about the 2020 election, all topics producing potentially significant moments. here is a look. >> did president biden defeat former president donald trump in 2020? >> president biden won and senator warnock lawn, that's the reason i decided to run. >> the patient's role is to narrow, cramped, small a space for a woman, her doctor, and the united states government. we are witnessing, right now, what happens when politicians,

most of them men, pile into patients rooms. you get what you are seeing, right now, and if the women of georgia, the women of georgia deserves a senator who will stand with them. i trust women more than i trust politicians. >> ma'am, may i respond? >> very quickly, mister walker. >> you know, it is, and i heard about, it and i heard he was a talker but did he not mention that there was a baby in that room as well? also, did he not mention -- >> raise your hand if you support a federal minimum wage. mister walker, you did not raise your hand, so i'd like to ask you, first of all, why not, and what would you do to help struggling georgians? >> well, you said a federal -- i think, right now, and he said it, i want a federal government, no, he wants a federal government to run. right now, you have the word of

different corporations, to see just where they could [inaudible] people need a livable wage. >> and some of that is being addressed right now, in the strongly for marquette. you could support police officers as i have done through the cops program, through the invest to protect program, while, at the same time, holding police officers like all professions accountable. one thing i have not done, i've never pretended to be a police officer. i have never threatened a shootout with the police. >> you know what is so funny? i am one of many police officers. at the same time -- -- >> mr. walker, mr. walker, mr. walker, excuse me, mister walker, please, out of respect, i need to let you know, mr. walker, you are very well aware of the rules tonight, and you have a prop. that is not allowed, sir. i ask you to put that prop away. >> it's not a prop, this is

real. he -- said >> it is considered a prop, mister walker, excuse me, sir, you're very well aware of the rules, aren't you? >> well -- >> aren't you aware of the rules? >> let's talk about the truth. >> thank you for putting that prop owe a. >> what i want you to do is get off the government health care, and get on the health care he's got. >> georgia needs to expand medicare. it costs us more not to expand. what we're doing right now is subsidizing health care in other states. >> would you support president biden running for a second term in 2024? >> i have not spent a minute thinking about what politicians should run for what in 2024. >> would you support a trump 2024 run? >> i would. let me tell, you president trump's my friend. >> let's go now to reporters who are in georgia for tonight's debate, nbc news correspondent, alison barber, and new york times political reporter, maya king. thank you for joining us. alison, let me start with you.

basically, what was each campaign hoping to achieve through tonight's debate, and what are they saying afterwards about whether they achieved it? >> going into the debate night, we were expecting to hear herschel walker make an aggressive push to try and tie senator warnock to president joe biden. joe biden does not have a very high approval rating in the state, in a poll, by the agency, back in september, among lightly georgia voters. the president's approval rating overall was 37%. we've seen walker do that throughout the campaign, when i was speaking to sources close to the walker campaign. they were adamant that he was going to aggressively make that point tonight. we saw him try to bring that up a number of times. warnock's rebuttal to that was he said something along the lines of, it is clear to me that my candidate would like to be running against anyone, except for me. on warnock's side, we expected to see him come in and highlight a lot of the work he has already done in washington,

d.c., work he says is directly helping voters here in georgia. also highlight some of the bipartisan legislation that he has worked on. we saw him do that tonight. it was a very interesting, quick, back and forth debate, both sides are already declaring victory. i have my phone out because i've been texting the sources from both campaigns. warnock's side, they feel like he did a very good job tonight. his campaign manager, already released a statement saying, in part, there is no question reverend warnock won tonight's debate, and showed georgians the reason they elected him in the first place well herschel walker offered no solutions, light, and proved, once again, he isn't ready to represent georgians. walker's campaign manager tweeted he dominated the debate tonight, he had campaign surrogates in the spin room after singing his praises. i got a text from another walker campaign source, that's the word they used again, dominated on warnock side, a source close to his campaign, when i asked how he thought warnock did tonight, the first

text he sent was, well, for starters, the reverend did not flush a fake police badge. that was an interesting odd moment where you have the moderator telling walker, you know the rules, you can't have any sort of. probably held up what appeared to be some sort of police like badge, even though he, himself, is not a police officer. steve? >> yeah, interesting moment there, indeed, alison. maya, you've done reporting, and i know you've written about republicans rallying around herschel walker, in the wake of these allegations about paying for an abortion. this is the kind of race, though, when you look at the polling in it, where even if most republicans stick with walker, if there is a small amount of slippage there for, him with that republican base, that could make the difference between winning and losing this case. in your reporting, have you detected, picked up on any cracks in that republican support for walker, even if it is small? support for walker, >> i've talf

conservative voters who have expressed some concerns, yes, who have said that they are all in behind governor kemp, but not yet made up their mind about whether or not they want to support herschel walker. tonight was a chance for walker to make an appeal to those voters. you hear, at the end, in his closing statements, he said, for those voters who are nervous about voting for me, calling himself a non-politician, he, essentially, made a pitch to them, saying i will be ready on day one to represent you in the senate. the difference, though, those are the voters raphael warnock has spoken to, repeatedly, not only on the debate stage, talking extensively about his, work with republican senators, but also on the airwaves, he's cut advertisements with a similar message. it's clear there's a slice of the electorate in georgia both candidates are absolutely and cooling for, in the next few weeks. >> all right, yes, definitely are some swing voters here,

entire balance of the senate could come down to how those swing voters but here. thank you very much for joining us, after a lively debate tonight. let's take a look, your head back over to the board. speaking of where this race stands, let's take a look here, a closer look at georgia in the polling, how this fits into that question of control. what you are seeing here is the current polling average in those georgia races. warnock is leading walker here. we have had a couple of polls that came out since those allegations ten days ago were launched against herschel walker. you could see here it's a bit more than three points to lead that warnock enjoys over a walker. the x-factor to remember, when you think about georgia, i don't need to remind you of this if you remember the 2020 election, georgia is a runoff state. there is a third candidate in this case, a libertarian, who's going to get 2 to 3 points of the vote, in georgia. in 2020, those senate races won two runoffs, if neither one of

these candidates can crack 50% on election night. guess, what georgia goes to a runoff. the runoff would be held on december six, when you look at the broader senate map, it's not impossible at all that this control of the senate could, again, come down to a runoff from georgia. we would have a month after the election to overtime these two candidates having the runoff to determine control. that is not impossible. two other things to note here, when you look inside the numbers, one of the polls that came out this week, emerson poll, there is a bit of a difference, there may be to beat those allegations against walker, the favorable, unfavorable score, for warnock, his favorable is just a tick over 50, for walker, he is a tick upside down there. there is a slight potentially significant difference, they're just in terms of how these candidates argued personally. again, you heard maya talking about this, there is also a gap here between the senate race, and the governor's race. the governor's race in georgia, the republican camp in the voting average, a comfortable lead over stacey abrams, at least right now, there appears

to be something we thought might be extinct in politics in georgia, split to get voters. folks voting for brian kemp, but they're not voting for herschel walker, at least not at this moment, in the senate race, but instead going for raphael warnock. is that a dynamic that's going to persist until election day? let's talk more about those dynamics in georgia now, joining us is charles a political science professor at the university of. georgia professor, thank you for joining us. i appreciate it. you know the lay of the land in georgia, you saw that debate tonight, you have a sense of the electorate, i am curious, do you think that anything that happened in that debate tonight will affect this election, one way or another? >> i don't think anything that happened tonight will make a dramatic change. now on, apparently, made a statement which -- a missile statement kind of thing which then becomes the news, the kind of thing that may work its way to a political ad if something says something out of left field.

the candidates held their own tonight. >> we played two clips when it came to the subject of former president trump. at the end of the debate, herschel walker was asked, would you support trump or 2024? he immediately said that he would. earlier in the night, the, when asked if biden had legitimately won in the election in 2020, he said, flatly, joe biden had won the election in 2020. that puts him at odds, obviously, with everything donald trump has claimed about the 2020 election. when you look at that dynamic of splits to get voters, we were just talking about, that folks for camp, but not yet for walker, did he give him anything in that answer, simply affirming joe biden, the legitimacy of joe biden's victory that met with them over? >> i don't think so. i think where he hurt himself was saying, right off, that he would support reelection of donald trump. donald trump didn't carry georgia, and indeed, trump's negatives contributed to

walker's election back in that runoff in january. there is a share of the georgia electorate, white, college educated, suburban voters, and a lot of those still probably identify as republicans. 40% of those are someone who looks like our past elections can't bring themselves to vote for donald trump. that 40% right there could be the decisive element, because a democrat to and has to get a share of the white vote and it's those voters, white college educated voters, democratic candidate has his best prospects with. that readily endorsement of donald trump might actually be a back burner. >> it's interesting, one direction early in the debate on the subject of trump, and another direction at the very end. it'll be interesting as the voters who are talking, about which one makes more of an impact on them. charles bullet, professor at the university of georgia, thank you so much for joining us, i appreciate you spending a few minutes. coming up, a normal mid term year, joe biden's low approval

ratings would spell certain doom for his party, at the polls. and yet, in one key measure, democrats seem to be defying gravity. is this an illusion? are they poised to pull off something practically unheard of for a white house party in a midterm election? david plouffe and rich lowry will be here to tackle that, next. next time. it's life's most precious commodity, especially when you have metastatic breast cancer. when your time is threatened, it's hard to invest in your future. until now. kisqali is helping women live longer than ever before when taken with an aromatase inhibitor or fulvestrant... in hr+, her2- metastatic breast cancer. kisqali is a pill that's proven to delay disease progression. kisqali can cause lung problems, or an abnormal heartbeat, which can lead to death. it can cause serious skin reactions, liver problems, and low white blood cell counts that may result in severe infections. tell your doctor right away if you have new or worsening symptoms, including breathing problems, cough, chest pain...

a change in your heartbeat, dizziness, yellowing of the skin or eyes, dark urine, tiredness, loss of appetite, abdomen pain, bleeding, bruising, fever, chills, or other symptoms of an infection, a severe or worsening rash, are or plan to become pregnant, or breastfeeding. avoid grapefruit during treatment. your future is ahead of you, so it's time to make the most of it with kisqali. because when you invest in yourself, everyone gets the best of you. moderate to severe eczema still disrupts my skin. despite treatment it disrupts my skin with itch. it disrupts my skin with rash. but now, i can disrupt eczema with rinvoq. rinvoq is not a steroid, topical, or injection. it's one pill, once a day, that's effective without topical steroids. many taking rinvoq saw clear or almost-clear skin while some saw up to 100% clear skin. plus, they felt fast itch relief some as early as 2 days. that's rinvoq relief. rinvoq can lower your ability to fight infections, including tb. serious infections and blood clots,

some fatal, cancers including lymphoma and skin cancer, death, heart attack, stroke, and tears in the stomach or intestines occurred. people 50 and older with at least one heart disease risk factor have higher risks. don't take if allergic to rinvoq, as serious reactions can occur. tell your doctor if you are or may become pregnant. disrupt the itch and rash of eczema. talk to your doctor about rinvoq. learn how abbvie can help you save. i brought in ensure max protein with 30 grams of protein. those who tried me felt more energy in just two weeks. uhh - here, i'll take that woo hoo ensure max protein, with 30 grams of protein, 1 gram of sugar and now in two new flavors (♪ ♪) bipolar depression. it made me feel trapped in a fog. this is art inspired by real stories of bipolar depression. i just couldn't find my way out of it. the lows of bipolar depression can take you to a dark place. latuda could make a real difference in your symptoms. latuda was proven to significantly reduce bipolar depression symptoms. and in clinical studies, had no substantial impact on weight.

this is where i want to be. call your doctor about sudden behavior changes or suicidal thoughts. antidepressants can increase these in children and young adults. elderly dementia patients have increased risk of death or stroke. report fever, confusion, stiff or uncontrollable muscle movements, which may be life threatening or permanent. these aren't all the serious side effects. now i'm back where i belong. ask your doctor if latuda is right for you. pay as little as zero dollars for your first prescription. our canton continues to the as a teacher living and working in san francisco, the cost of housing makes living and working here really difficult. proposition d is the only measure that speeds up construction of affordable new homes by removing bureaucratic roadblocks. so teachers, nurses, firefighters and workers like us can live where we work. while prop e makes it nearly impossible to build more housing join habitat for humanity in rejecting prop e, and supporting prop d to build more affordable housing for everyone. now.

first poll closing inside now of 24 days and 20 hours until election day. let's take a look at the big picture view right here of the mid term climate. again, 24 plus days out from the election. one thing we look at in the mid term is the president's job approval rating, typically the lower it is, the worse the president's party does. here is joe biden's approval rating, the average, 43.3%.

put this in some perspective. here is his recent predecessors, . this is where they were this exact name pointed in their first midterm. here you see biden's numbers, where trump's, where four years ago, bush, sorry, obama, ten, bill clinton back in 90, for the one exception, bush in 2002. what those translated into, the numbers, like bidens, and trump's case, obama's case, clinton's case, those were dozens of lost seats, and the presidents party lost control of the house in each one of those elections. biden's approval rating puts them in that category. simple story, right? no. here's where it gets complicated. another thing we look at that is the generic ballot, the question asks, which party would you like to vote? for democrats, republicans to control congress. you see republicans lead on that question, it's by nine tenths of one point. what you are looking at on the screen or their recent wave of elections. 2018, 2014 was a wave for republicans, 2010, 2006. this is where the generic ballot was and all of those.

years it's lower this, year it's closer, tighter than it was and all of these wave election. years 2014 was a bit of a white building way for republicans. even, now higher than the 0.9 right now. you see it, 2010, when republicans won 63 seats, they were up nearly six points of the generic ballot right there. the generic ballot is not what we'd expected to be given where joe biden's approval rating is. the other complicating factor is, take a closer look at the generic ballot. this is tracking it since may. you could see it changed a bit as the years went along. republicans had a significant lead of the generic ballot earlier this year. got into june, when the supreme court decision, roe v. wade reversal came down. look, by the middle of the summer, democrats actually pulled ahead on the generic ballot. they maintain that lead through the middle of september. republicans, more recently, have regained the lead. again, it's less than a point. nine tenths of a point is this a situation where democrats

could put themselves in position with the generic ballot? will they have that biden approval rating be the turn permitting factor here? let's talk about these big picture dynamics. joining us is david plouffe, former campaign manager of white house senior adviser of president barack obama, and nbc political analyst. which flowery, editor and chief of national review, and an nbc news political analyst. thanks to both of you for joining us. david, let me start with you. i want to -- this is from our recent nbc poll. we asked folks what is the most important issue to you in this election. if you combine the economy and inflation, basically one third of voters say that is the most important thing, the economy or inflation. among those voters, you're looking at it on the screen right, there are 60% of them say they're voting republican. 31% of them say they're voting democrats. 29.8 advantage there for republicans on the most important topic, which voters say is this most important topic. as a democrat, how do you

overcome a headwind like that? >> steve, i put out that the charge you put up is important. it's important to remind people to last for off year elections were all reelection, starkly we've never seen anything like that. what we're seeing now, and it's still a long 25 days, things could change, but it doesn't add up to that. we're going to have a lot of close races in the senate house government. if you're running a campaign, you can't ignore the economy, if you're a democrat, if you are in economy, talk about what's popular in your district or state, and you have to disqualify the republican candidates, saying they're not going to do anything to fix the economy. they're going to share the rich with tax cuts, and not look after working people. you have to bring these other issues into the races, where you have an advantage, abortion, health care, democracy, and i think that's what you have. you have, obviously, a tough economy as voters see, it a president in power, historically know that what happened with a powerful force, but the opposing power force is

post-dobbs, democracy, republican brand is not particularly strong, trump is hanging around. that's what a thing as up to close races. one caveat is, when you show the congressional ballot, yes, it's only 0.9, but they're still about 9% of the people who are professing their decision, and so how that group breaks is going to be super important. in 14, we saw a lot broke republican. if you are democrat, i think you have to watch that carefully. who is left out there? ultimately, one hunted percent of the vote gets allocated. >> rich, let me turn the same question around a bit. with an advantage like, that on the economy, and inflation, when you look at a generic ballot that is still within one point in favor of republicans, this close to the election, are they missing an opportunity? is something going wrong for them here? >> democrats have achieved some separation from biden, and the standing republican party is particularly robust. with that said, the most important issue far and away being the economy and inflation

are republicans being heavily favored on that issue. it's hard to see that fundamental is not going to be driving what happens about a month and now. republicans clearly lost around in the summer, and reaction over dobbs, they feel that the fundamentals are reasserting themselves in this race. they don't need a big 1994, 2014 wave. they just need a standard middle term. they will win the house, in that circumstance. they will win the house just a question of the margin. the only need a seat in the senate. it's not particularly heavy lift for swing races that people are focused on, in the senate, and easily, republicans are going to win 50 or 52 senate seats. there is a big difference between 50 and 51, but pennsylvania is tight, ron johnson the, incumbent, now looking good, wisconsin, herschel walker, that race hasn't changed much, and might have helped himself tonight,

and nevada is looking very good for the republican. it's easy to see how they could pick up 52 in the senate. >> let's talk a bit more, david, about the senate. i know we've got georgia on our minds tonight with that debate. rich mentioned pennsylvania. we have the current polling average in that senate race between john fetterman and mehmet oz. if we don't, i can tell you the current polling average. there you go, you could see, is a small print, there but fetterman leads in the average by 3.4 points right now, over oz. if you go back to august, it was an 8.7-point advantage for fetterman. pennsylvania race is interesting because it's the only one, currently, with a republican seat and the democrats leaving the polling average. on paper, this is the best opportunity for democrats. it is tightening. what do you attribute it to, and are you, as a democrat, nervous about pennsylvania right now? >> you never super comfortable, steve, as you know, in

pennsylvania. with the exception of our race in 2008. it's going to be competitive. first of, all your point about it is the republican open seat, so if the democrats are going to win that in terms of the chest match that is the senate, that increases the degree of difficulty for republicans so critically. the reason it's tightened up largely is because of a bunch of suburban voters moving to us. republicans have come home to him. republican-leaning independents. you've got to remember, one, a long way out, but josh shapiro looks like he is in a strong position. you're going to have top of the ticket they're winning, probably, several points above 50%, or over 50%. that's a helpful dynamic for fetterman. there is no doubt. most of the gains have been oz, basically getting the vote he was going to get anyway. it's coming to his call. i'm sure, that sounds like a race going to come down to those four points, could be two points, could be a point, and so things like turnout in philadelphia, and in pittsburgh,

you get the suburban margin, that josh shapiro is going to get, super important. pennsylvania is key just because that is the democrats best opportunity. i still think wisconsin is going to be close, but pennsylvania is the best opportunity for the democrats to steal the seat. when things are this close, again, in terms of that chest match, it's incredibly important. >> our last statement we were talking about, that georgia race in charles, bullet, university of georgia, was talking about that kemp or not voter in georgia who basically is saying, hey, look, trump is playing a role in that, that camp was that political war with donald trump, and that may appeal to the voters in georgia, a suburban voter who doesn't like biden, isn't not about the democrats, but also really doesn't like donald trump, and he's comparable with kemp, but not sold on walker. that dynamic could present itself a number of suburban areas around the country, potentially, that republicans are counting on. is donald trump a hindrance

right now, his prominence, unusual for a former president? is he a hindrance to republican efforts? >> yeah, no, absolutely, he is. he's not the most important issue in the election. georgia is going to be interesting, because that kemp margin is going to matter. it seems like it's likely to beat stacey abrams, 52, you know, with the big victory. if it gets up 53, 54, then you could see him, potentially, pulling herschel walker over the top, and over 50%, and avoiding a runoff. i don't think they're going to be warnock voters, it's going to be a fallout on the kemp vote, obviously. it will be an under, oath may be kemp, a libertarian candidate. i don't think many people are going to be pulling the lever for brian kemp and raphael no warnock. by the way, governor kemp has proven himself on most -- politicians. >> rich flowery, david plouffe, thank you for joining. and i appreciate it. up next, we are talking about, it that 50/50 senate. we're going to go deep on all the battleground states and we're going to take a look at

each party's target list. republicans have a set of seats are trying to hard to flip. what are the numbers showing in those states? democrats have their own list as well, how are they doing in those states? which party has the clearest path to control the senate? that is next. that is next liberty mutual. they customize your car insurance, so you only pay for what you need. and by switching, you could even save $652. thank you, liberty mutual. now, contestants ready? go! why? why? only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty.♪

[ sneezing ] are you okay? only pay for what you need. oh, it's just a cold. if you have high blood pressure, a cold is not just a cold. coricidin is the #1 doctor recommended cold and flu brand. specially designed for people with high blood pressure. be there for life's best moments. trust coricidin. i have moderate to severe plaque psoriasis. now, there's skyrizi. ♪things are getting clearer♪ ♪i feel free to bare my skin♪ ♪yeah, that's all me♪ ♪nothing and me go hand in hand♪ ♪nothing on my skin♪ ♪that's my new plan♪ ♪nothing is everything♪ achieve clearer skin with skyrizi. 3 out of 4 people achieved 90% clearer skin at 4 months. in another study, most people had 90% clearer skin, even at 4 years. and skyrizi is just 4 doses a year, after 2 starter doses. ♪it's my moment, so i just gotta say♪ ♪nothing is everything♪ serious allergic reactions and an increased risk of infections,

or a lower ability to fight them, may occur. tell your doctor if you have an infection or symptoms, had a vaccine or plan to. ♪nothing is everything♪ now's the time to ask your doctor about skyrizi, the number one dermatologist prescribed biologic. learn how abbvie could help you save. (vo) the older. the number one dermatologist prescribed biologic. the physically challenged. the last to be chosen. shelter dogs with special needs face a far longer road to adoption. but subaru knows even the toughest roads can lead to the most amazing places. that's why subaru and our retailers created national make a dog's day... to help all underdogs find homes. subaru. more than a car company.

with my hectic life you'd think retirement would be the last thing on my mind. thankfully, voya provides comprehensive solutions and shows me how to get the most out of my workplace benefits. voya helps me feel like i've got it all under control. voya. well planned. well invested. well protected. >> started in georgia tonight,

talk about pennsylvania, a few

of those other senate battlegrounds of the last five. let's take a deeper look at battle full for control of the senate. 50/50 right now kamala harris breaks the tie. that's why democrats have control. republicans, their magic number is they need a net gain of one seat. that would deliver senate control to the republicans. let's break this into two categories. what do you see here, these are the five, probably, most vulnerable, democratic seats. any of these that republicans win our pick ups for republicans, and what do you are seeing as the current polling average in each one of those states. you see there is one, currently one, democratic health seat in nevada where republicans meet the poll. average this is the republican challenger, alex laxalt, leading the democratic senator by an average of 1.7 in the polls. that, right now, on paper, is the most ripe pick up opportunity for republicans, if they could get that, and hold all of their seats they currently have, that would give them control of the senate. right now, the biggest problem that republicans have, we

mentioned this last block, pennsylvania. pat toomey, republican, retiring, but it's a republican seat, this is the only republican seat where democrats, john fetterman, currently leading the polling average. right now, republicans on the polling average, best position to get to the game you are looking for in nevada, democrats best position to offset it in pennsylvania, that's what raises the stakes, potentially, in georgia. if herschel walker were ever able to overcome warnock there, if it ever came down to a runoff, and potentially that could be decisive. that's what makes a state like ohio, we're north carolina such a potential wildcard. folks have been looking at ohio the entire campaign, wondering when will the polls break advances direction. this is a state that won comfortably for donald trump twice. yet, vance queens on average by less than one point right now. we will talk about this later in the show, the polls have been off in states like ohio, in most recent elections. is that a factor here as well? again, name of the game for republicans is to get a net gain of a seat for democrats,

everyone they could get in this column, if they could get a couple of wins from the republicans column, almost certainly, they would then continue to control the u.s. senate. speaking of that, one of the most hotly contested races, it is in wisconsin, rounds on, republican, you see, this is an unusual position for him to be leading in the polls. he's come from behind and won twice, he is running for a third charm, his opponent, democratic lieutenant governor, mandela barnes, they had their own debate just last night. let's take a look at some of the highlights from that. >> my opponent has little to no work experience in the private sector, and other than hollow rhetoric, i'm not sure what he has ever accomplished, or really what he has to offer. >> there's no commercials talking about senator johnson's records, he has nothing to run. on he hasn't done a single thing for us. >> the dollar you held to start the biden administration is now worth only 88.3 cents, it's crushing everyone. >> we need to give working class families some relief, the little cause tax, could we need to make the child tax credit from. and we have to stop giving tax deductions and tax breaks for the wealthiest people. >> i understand how high the

cost of gas is because i filled my own gas tank. i drive myself around the city. i like lieutenant governor barnes who assured around by state patrol, costing taxpayers over $600, 000, through last november. >> the senator should be so audacious, if you felt to mention that taxpayers had a foot the bill for his private plane trips between d.c. and his 3 million dollar mansion in florida. the vacation home. >> let me be very clear, i want to save social security. i want to save medicare. the greatest threat to any government program is the massive, out of control deficit spending, and our growing debt. >> senator johnson talks about making social security discretionary spending, that means he is coming for your retirement. >> we need lots enforcement, and the problem with defund movement, which he has been a supporter of, it disappears a lot enforcement, a hard time recruiting members, and we aren't going to have the law enforcement officers we need to reduce crime. >> no police officers in this country or more dispirited than the ones who were present at the united states capitol on january 6th.

>> please, hold off on that. >> senator johnson has sponsored eight different national abortion bans, he sponsored abortion bans i had no exceptions for rape, incest, or the life of the mother. >> i proposed a one time, single issue referendum to decide at what point does society have the responsibility to protect life. >> mr., barnes you go first. what do you find admirable about your opponent? >> well, not necessarily. that i think the senator has proven to be a family man, and i think that's admirable. >> i appreciate the fact that lieutenant governor barnes -- school teacher, father worked through his shift. he had a good upbringing. i guess what puzzles me about that is, with that upbringing, why has he turned against american? why has he -- finding america awful? >> all right, that was that wisconsin senate debate last night. again, in the polling average ron johnson is ahead by a little bit more than two points

right now. speaking of wisconsin, it's the site, every four years, the site of a closely watched governor's race here. it couldn't get much closer than this in terms of the polling. tony, various democratic incumbent, tied in the polling average with tim michaels, his republican challenger, 40 78, 40 78. it seems fitting for wisconsin. you have a perfect tie, the polling average, one of several midwest states here with governors races we are keeping a close eye on nationally. we are also watching gretchen whitmer, democratic incumbent, has a lead over her republican challenger, to dixon. that is within ten points at this point. we are just a tick shy of 50 points, and in michigan, last night, whitmer and dixon met in a debate that debate was focused on abortion, gun violence, states handling of covid-19. take a look at that. ing of covid-19 take a look at that. >> when roe fell, mrs. dickson celebrated that. she said it didn't go far enough. she said she wanted to make abortion a felony, no

exceptions for rape, incest, or health, of the woman. >> my position on abortion is clear. i am pro life, with exceptions for life of the mother. you should understand her position. it's extremely radical. it's abortion up to the moment of birth. >> to their dixon posted on her social media a picture of her shooting a gun. with the caption that said, gun control means using both hands. >> gretchen whitmer has made it pretty clear she aunts to make sure she takes away any protection you could have. she wouldn't allow protection, even inside of the school. we know that is the best-case scenario, if we have someone that can shoot down a shooter. >> while my life was being threatened for making her decisions to save lives across our state, mrs. dixon was spreading conspiracy theories. >> mrs. nixon was downplaying masks, saying this would go away without getting vaccinated. >> she knows her response was so completely horrendous, in fact she closed restaurants down longer than any other state. we lost 3000 restaurants. >> my plan is proposing

policies that increased guns, decrease oversight, and eliminate gun free zones. that's not going to make us any safer. >> this is a woman who shut down the state and had to have her powers, her powers, removed by the supreme court. do not trust her with another four years to terrorize you. >> that was michigan. also tonight, in wisconsin, we just talked about it that close race there, tony evers and tim michaels. they squared off in their first one. it may be their only debate. here's what happened. >> to mitigate against inflation, we are going to lower our taxes on the middle class folks in the state of wisconsin by 10%. >> joe biden, week on inflation, canceling the keystone pipeline. what can we do? put more money in people's pockets. i'm a businessman, i understand microeconomics. >> i am somebody who actually believes that we have some really thoughtful things we can

do wrong by, universal backlog checks are one, red flag laws are another. >> the left always just wants to take away guns and things that is the problem. i'm responsible gun owner, i will protect your second amendment rights. >> the last election, safe, secure, and there was not fraud. >> there is a non partisan legislative commission that did find a illegal voting did happen in the last election. >> women should have the ability and the right to make decisions about their health care, including reproductive health care, and that includes abortion. >> i am pro-life, and i make no apologies for that. but, i will tell you who the real radical is. the real radical is governor evers, where he is allowing abortion as late as at the time of birth. >> and joining us now from madison, wisconsin, msnbc correspondent shaquille brewster, he was in the room for that governor's debate just a few hours ago. he joins us now. thank you for taking time to

talk to us. wisconsin, it is one of the preeminent battlegrounds, every election it term, presidential, top, if you want, about the dynamics that are defining this governor's race. i'm curious, being on the ground out there, are they different at all than the dynamics in the senate race, where we saw some of the clips from that heated debate last night? >> if you want to compare tonight's debate to what we saw last night, or what we saw tonight, to dramatically different themes. there was a much more contentious debate last night. this, tonight, the debate, tonight, we saw a much more polite contrast drawing between the two candidates. that's not to say there were no differences in this debate. we sought to michaels come out pretty sharp. he was on message. we saw him attempt to moderate some of those positions that he has been getting attacked for on the airwaves, on abortion, for example. we know that previously. he has said, and stands by, at his support for the current ban on abortion in the state of wisconsin. that was written in 1849. he emphasized, tonight, he

would support exceptions if the legislators sent him that legislation for rape and incest. on the issue of election integrity, while he has been ambiguous before on how he would certify the election or how he would treat the election certification in future elections, he said, unequivocally, tonight, he would certify the election, but said he would do that because he would sign some of the republican bills that were passed or would be passed if he were governor in the state of wisconsin. on the other side, you saw governor tony evers trying to stay aggressive, trying to stay on the offense. painting himself as the guard rail, the protector for some of what he calls the extreme policies of the republican side. one thing you notice is that you still have both abortion and economic issues top of mind. they play a little bit differently here in the state of wisconsin. all right, shaq brewster in madison. thank you so much for joining us. i appreciate. that coming, up we're gonna take a deep dive into the

polling. we are showing you the numbers -- the big misses, we're gonna look at the biggest miss in the 2020 elections and will commit for 2022. that is next. that is next. my most important kitchen tool? my brain. so i choose neuriva plus. unlike some others, neuriva plus is a multitasker supporting 6 key indicators of brain health. to help keep me sharp. neuriva: think bigger.

in a recent clinical study, patients using salonpas patch reported reductions in pain severity, using less or a lot less oral pain medicines. and improved quality of life. that's why we recommend salonpas. it's good medicine. ♪ ♪ have diabetes? know where your glucose is?

with the freestyle libre 3 system, know your glucose and where it's heading. no fingersticks needed. now the world's smallest, thinnest sensor sends your glucose levels directly to your smartphone. manage your diabetes with more confidence and lower your a1c now you know freestyle libre 3. try it for free at freestylelibre.us. your spirit is stronger than your highs and lows. your creativity can outshine any bad day. because you are greater than your bipolar i, and you can help take control of your symptoms - and ask about vraylar. some medicines only treat the lows or highs. once-daily vraylar is proven to treat depressive, acute manic, and mixed episodes of bipolar i in adults.

full-spectrum relief for all bipolar i symptoms. elderly dementia patients have increased risk of death or stroke. call your doctor about unusual changes in behavior or suicidal thoughts. antidepressants can increase these in children and young adults. report fever, stiff muscles or confusion which may mean a life-threatening reaction, or uncontrollable muscle movements which may be permanent. high cholesterol and weight gain, and high blood sugar, which can lead to coma or death, may occur. movement dysfunction and restlessness are common side effects. sleepiness and stomach issues are also common. side effects may not appear for several weeks. you are greater than your bipolar i. ask about vraylar and learn how abbvie could help you save. time. it's life's most precious commodity, especially when you have metastatic breast cancer. when your time is threatened, it's hard to invest in your future. until now. kisqali is helping women live longer than ever before when taken with an aromatase inhibitor or fulvestrant... in hr+, her2- metastatic breast cancer. kisqali is a pill that's proven

to delay disease progression. kisqali can cause lung problems, or an abnormal heartbeat, which can lead to death. it can cause serious skin reactions, liver problems, and low white blood cell counts that may result in severe infections. tell your doctor right away if you have new or worsening symptoms, including breathing problems, cough, chest pain... a change in your heartbeat, dizziness, yellowing of the skin or eyes, dark urine, tiredness, loss of appetite, abdomen pain, bleeding, bruising, fever, chills, or other symptoms of an infection, a severe or worsening rash, are or plan to become pregnant, or breastfeeding. avoid grapefruit during treatment. your future is ahead of you, so it's time to make the most of it with kisqali. because when you invest in yourself, everyone gets the best of you. as our countdown continues, the first fall closing on election night is starting to feel close. we are going to take a look now. we've been showing you during this show some of the polling from some of the key battleground states.

of course, anybody who lived through the 2020, and 2016 elections can tell you the poles have not always been getting it right recently. one thing to keep in mind here i think is important, the polling misses that we saw in 2016, that we saw in 2020. for that, matter we saw some of the 2018 midterms as well. they have not been really evenly distributed. they haven't been every state missing the same way. there's been one particular region in the country where the misses, the gap between where the polling is and where the election results and up, that's the midwest. with that in mind, there are two states in particular that are crucial to that battle for senate control this year. where there were some significant polling. this was both in 2016, and in 2020. they are ohio and wisconsin. i want to show you this. this is in 2020. this is what the final poll average look like in each one of those states. ohio has that big senate race this year. j.d. vance, tim ryan. wisconsin had the senate race, we were just talking about it. mandela barnes, ron johnson. the final numbers in 2020, the

average, trump was leading ohio by one point. we were talking about could biden win ohio. biden seemed to be in control and wisconsin, 6.7 was his average lead. there was a poll that had him up 17 points, close to the election, one poll. here is what actually happened in those states. biden did win wisconsin, but by a whisker. there was a polling miss of six points on average. trump did win ohio, but he won it easily, over eight points, a polling missed there of over seven points. that is the question a lot of people have been asking here. especially looking at the senate races in hawkeye oh and wisconsin. when you look at the polling, has the polling been missing something in these midwest states. have the pollsters figure out what it is? what is going on in those midwestern states in particular? joining us now is the perfect person to ask. he is charles, franklin a professor of law and probably policy at marquette university. he is director of the best poll in was confident. marquette poll they were just out this week. charles, thank you for joining

us. i shouldn't say, as we talk about the misses in 2020, you had one of the better poles in 2020, in terms of coming close to the result here. but i think you know what i'm talking about. with some of the other polls that were taken, there was a real, traumatic example. but really missed wisconsin badly. and states in that area. iowa, ohio, was confident. do we know why the misses have been so pronounced in that region? >> everybody in poland has been working hard to address that. and we've done what we have identified. but the fear is that trump supporters have been less willing to respond to polls. and so we've adjusted things to try to capture those trump voters. but even so, we've underestimated the trump vote. even as we've got in the democratic vote pretty. well we were badly wrong. everybody would badly wrong in 2016. we improved a bit in 2020. and there was, as you said, a lot of variation in the errors.

but one of the things is, blue-collar workers. folks without a college degree in the midwest make up a particularly large share. well over 60% of registered voters in west conson do not have a college degree and when we look at the changes that have taken place in the last few years, white men without a college degree here in wisconsin have gone from being four points more republican than democrat, to 25 points more republican than democrat. so there's been a big movement in the partisanship of the exact segment of the electorate that is fairly -- harder than average to reach. >> i'm curious as a pollster, how do you look at -- you came out this week with a poll in the senate race with ron johnson ahead. i was looking back, it's one of the only polls i've seen in a couple of cycles in these three campaigns were johnson has actually been ahead. i talk to people in ohio who

say, look, the polling is real close there but you know how ohio. is that will end up winning by six or seven. when you get the polling results that shows you john already ahead, do you think you're missing some voters? do you think you've done a better job of getting those trump voters? how do you read that? >> you worry about that, mostly. but the real thing is, with johnson, in 2016, we showed him behind early in the year. but we showed him steadily closing the gap until it was just a pure toss-up in the last poll before the election. so there are campaign affects. this, year we saw johnson behind in august. but then tied in september and now ahead. there have been other polls, at four points and five points johnson leads. but there's also been a couple of times right now. people should look at the range of results. >> all right. the movement does sound like it's important. charles franklin, market law poll, we appreciate you taking a few minutes. we will be right back. a few minutes. we will be right back.

♪ it's the most wonderful time of the year ♪ claritin provides non-drowsy symptom relief from over 200 indoor and outdoor allergens, day after day. feel the clarity and make today the most wonderful time of the year. live claritin clear. moderate to severe eczema still disrupts my skin. despite treatment it disrupts my skin with itch. it disrupts my skin with rash. but now, i can disrupt eczema with rinvoq. rinvoq is not a steroid, topical, or injection. it's one pill, once a day, that's effective without topical steroids. many taking rinvoq saw clear or almost-clear skin while some saw up to 100% clear skin. plus, they felt fast itch relief some as early as 2 days. that's rinvoq relief. rinvoq can lower your ability to fight infections, including tb. serious infections and blood clots, some fatal, cancers including lymphoma and skin cancer, death, heart attack, stroke, and tears in the stomach

or intestines occurred. people 50 and older with at least one heart disease risk factor have higher risks. don't take if allergic to rinvoq, as serious reactions can occur. tell your doctor if you are or may become pregnant. disrupt the itch and rash of eczema. talk to your doctor about rinvoq. learn how abbvie can help you save.

- [female narrator] they line up by the thousands. each one with a story that breaks your heart. like ravette... every step, brought her pain. their only hope: mercy ships. the largest floating civilian hospital in the world. bringing free surgeries to people who have no other hope. $19 a month will help provide urgently needed surgery for so many still suffering. so don't wait, call the number on your screen. or donate at mercyships.org.